Early morning convection moving through central New York will be approaching the area by 1pm this afternoon. The intensity of this complex has been waning, however central New England has been in partial sun all morning, with temperatures now up into the mid 70's with dew points in the low to mid 60's. This will provide fuel to kickstart some of these storms and we could see a few heavy downpours and gusty winds as they come through.

These storms are in association with a prefrontal trough. The cold front is currently over the eastern Lakes Region. IT will move eastward this afternoon and we'll see more thunderstorms spring up along that boundary. Instability over portions of southern and eastern New England will likely be lacking as cloudiness this morning is stubborn to break up. The main area for severe weather potential is over northeast PA and into southeastern New York state. A few secondary regions exist as well: one up toward northern New England near the triple point and in fact in some of the better instability; and the other back toward Kentucky where CAPE values will be vaulting toward 3000J/kg this afternoon. The primary threat will be damaging winds, however large hail will be possible especially across northern PA, NY and into northern New England where mid level temperatures are the lowest.