DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
   THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND/NRN APPALACHIANS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT
   INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH QUEBEC
   APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S F AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
   DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
   WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS CONCERNING THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE...THE SHEAR AND
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   SEVERE MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN
   THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
   ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD HAVE A
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 8/02/2007 04:38:00 PM