The threat of severe thunderstorms has increased. The clouds have broken up more than anticipated, and solar heating has brought temperatures into the lower 80's with dew points in the mid 60's. Lifted indices currently between -2 and -4 will be sufficient for thunderstorms to become severe this afternoon.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for western and central New York state. A watch will likely be issued for parts of New England by 4pm.



Here is the latest from the SPC:

   ...GRT LKS/NERN STATES...
   CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS
   ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SFC HEATING MAXIMIZES LOW LVL
   DESTABILIZATION.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AND
   RELATIVELY COOL AIR PRESENT ALOFT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAIRLY
   UNSTABLE.  MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN/ WRN NEW
   ENGLAND TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY.  VALUES SHOULD
   ALSO APPROACH 1000 J/KG OVER MI/WI BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT /AROUND
   MINUS 14C AT 500 MB/ ON N SIDE OF UPR JET.
   
   LARGE SCALE UVV SHOULD INCREASE OVER LWR MI/IND AND OH AS WI IMPULSE
   DROPS SEWD...AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD UPSTATE
   NY/NRN PA AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AS LK HURON DISTURBANCE/OH VORT
   CONTINUE E.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL... HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK.
   UPLIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK CONFLUENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
   DISTURBANCES...AND TO LAKE/TERRAIN- INDUCED BOUNDARIES.
   
   40-50 KT W TO WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY-CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD YIELD MULTIPLE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH SMALL SCALE
   BOWS.  THESE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLY
   LINGERING OVER PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
   REGION TIL ABOUT 06Z.