With a more northerly track of the storm Wednesday and Thursday, it is becoming more likely that thunderstorms will be a major threat during this period.

Hazardous weather outlook:

-Wednesday - could have some significant rainfall totals as short wave busts through out ahead of warm front with steadily increasing low level moisture. Looking at over half an inch of rain for sure through Wednesday night, but could be more.

Thunderstorms with the short wave will be limited due to cloud cover all day with a lack of surface heating and adequate instability.

-Thursday - heavy rainfall once again will be a threat, especially in thunderstorms. PWATS up to 1.7 to 1.9 likely. Areas hit by storms will likely have rainfall totals over an inch by Friday morning.

Severe thunderstorms will be a threat for western New England. Warm front crosses the region in the late morning and then stalls out. Where it stalls out will be critical to where severe thunderstorms threaten. If it moves far enough east and north, Keene will be in the warm sector with highs nearing 80 and adequate CAPE and LIs. With warm frontal boundary about 50 miles northeast and low pressure in southern Ontario, surface winds will shift to the south (clearing skies allowing heating) while upper level winds remain from the west. This will produce strong enough shear to develop rotation in thunderstorms and possibly a few tornadoes could touch down before all is said and done.

All in all, a low confidence forecast with a lot of potential for dangerous weather. Stay tuned.