Much will depend on how much sun Keene will receive tomorrow for what level of instability can be achieved. Mid level winds will reach 40 to 50kts tomorrow across the Northeast and Ohio Valley, creating a favorable environment for thunderstorm development. The main inhibiting factor will be a lack of surface heating if cloud cover remains throughout the day Thursday. Much will depend on how far the warm front can lift northward to clear skies about 100 miles southward.

The main threat will be damaging winds and a 30% probability has been outlined on the forecast. Severe hail will be possible, but not a prominent threat. The chance for tornadic development does exist, however, with the warm front further north, despite better instability, shear will be displaced northward as well. The two will not match up, and therefore the threat is lower than previously considered.