Models have a strong consensus on modest instability this afternoon. The ETA is particularly aggressive.




Expect convection developing by noon in northern and western NY as well as northern VT. Storms will quickly become severe with large hail, damaging winds, frequent CTG lightning, as well as torrential rains.

SL Keene Prediction:
20% overall severe
20% wind > 58mph
15% hail > .75"
2% tornado

First storms will reach Keene between 1430 and 1500 this afternoon. Numerous storms will pop up in northern VT and NY. Count on thunderstorm threat to continue through 10pm.

Regional Prediction:

Threat areas: central, western, northern NY; VT; central, southern NH; northwestern, northcentral MA

Greatest threat (>25%): northern NY, central VT, central NH

12pm: northern NY, western NY, northern VT
2pm: northern NY, western NY, central NY, northern VT, central VT, central NH
4pm: northern NY, western NY, central NY, all VT, all NH
6pm: northern NY, central NY, all VT, all NH, northern MA, western ME