While it may feel more like April than June this morning, heat is on the way. Starting with a warm front that will lift north tomorrow, high temperatures will reach the mid 70s followed by 80 on Monday and into the low 90s on Tuesday.

The warm front tomorrow will introduce instability into the region by the late morning, with isolated convection possible between 15z through 06z early Monday morning. Currently it appears that the low pressure center will move north of NY state Sunday afternoon, limiting the majority of convective activity to the north of the area, and reducing the severe threat. Still, a few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.

The heat is on for Tuesday with 850mb temperatures approaching 22 to 24C, with sunny skies helping the surface to reach up to 35C (95F). The NAM is forecasting incredible lifted indices for New England Tuesday afternoon between -6 and -10 with CAPE between 2000 and 3000 j/kg. The GFS as usual is not as nearly robust, but still projecting LIs between -2 and -6, which isnt bad coming from the GFS.

Tuesday, however, will not feature any organized thunderstorm activity. A few airmass storms are possible in the afternoon. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach the region from the west. Increasing cloud cover will limit maximum heating, but highs will still manage to reach between 88 and 91. GFS is forecasting lifted indices between 0 and -4, translating to a moderately unstable atmosphere. Right now, it looks like the northeast could see a significant convective complex Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Timing is uncertain with the arrival of the front. The GFS is a full 24 hours faster than the rest of the model guidence, with a late Wednesday morning - afternoon event. At this point, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon is game for severe weather. The SPC has included the northeast in the extended 4-8 day outlook for severe weather.