Today: Short wave moves southeast along warm front. Isolated showers or thunderstorms ending aournd 9pm. Lifted indices between -2 and -4 with CAPE around 1500 j/kg, will allow for a few thunderstorms to become strong or severe. Not an organized severe weather event, so watch is unlikely.
Tuesday: Backdoor front moving south from Quebec will reach northern Maine by 00z in the evening. Storms along the boundary will likely be strong to severe with lifted indices from -4 to -6 to the north and 500mb winds out of the west / northwest at over 35kts. Slight risk of some rotation in a few storms as well. Watch possible for parts of Maine and northern New Hampshire. Activity will remain north of Keene, with possibly a few isolated air mass thunderstorms affecting the area in the afternoon as lifted indices reach -4 to -8. No organized severe weather for Keene.
Wednesday: Best chance of severe thunderstorms in Keene. Backdoor front continues south. Thunderstorms will move southeast into the area between 3pm and 9pm. Lifted indices between -4 and -6, and PWAT values over 2.0 inches will allow for any thunderstorm to contain very heavy rainfall. Winds will be fairly unidirectional, but over 30kts at 500mb will assist in severe thunderstorm development. Main threats will be damaging winds, although large hail will be possible too. SPC has slight risk for day 3 convective outlook for all of the northeast. This could be an organized severe weather event for central New England with watch potential, and should be monitored closely.
Thursday: Main cold front moves through New England in the afternoon. Arrival in Keene will likely be too early for severe weather development. Thunderstorms will be possible however, with heavy rainfall. May have to monitor flash flood potential if Wednesday storms produce large amounts as well. Main severe weather threat will be to the east with damaging wind and large hail possible. Watch is possible for southern MA, eastern NH, central and eastern MA, CT, and RI.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 6/25/2007 09:53:00 AM