SPC Forecast Products
Current Day 1 Outlook
Current Day 2 Outlook
Current Day 3 Outlook


Updated at 10:20EDT 8/9


Sunday N 8/9
50% chance of thunderstorms
5% chance of severe weather


Monday 8/10
40% chance of thunderstorms
15% chance of severe weather

Posted: 6/27/2007 10:56:00 AM

Here is the latest outlook from the SPC:

...NEW ENGLAND AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ HAS
SPREAD NEWD INTO NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE S OF A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS NRN MAINE. THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
SURFACE CYCLONE/COLD FRONT ARE STILL WELL TO THE W IN ONTARIO...AND
WILL LIKELY REACH MAINE TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WEAK
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVING EWD FROM QUEBEC.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INVOF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN
MAINE...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG IN
COMBINATION WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40
KT. FARTHER S/SW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...BUT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. HERE...THE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT TOWARD ERN NY STATE.


Temperatures and dew points have started to soar (see latest home page post). Convective temperature should be reached by 1pm. High dew points indicate that storms this afternoon will have a lot of moisture to work with. Torrential rainfall is possible, along with damaging winds and frequent lightning.

Stay tuned.





Current analysis
00-hr chart 12-hr forecast
12-hr chart 24-hr forecast
24-hr chart 36-hr forecast
36-hr chart 48-hr forecast
48-hr chart