We remain in the warm sector of the storm system, with temperatures currently sitting at 57 with a dew point at 57. The moisture and shower activity will keep clouds in the area today, but highs will still be able to reach the mid 70's, which will keep the air relatively unstable. A cold front will cut through SNE later this evening, bring thunderstorms out ahead of it this afternoon. Some of these storms could contain large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightnight strikes, torrential rain, and a few may even sport a tornado... of which the SPC places us in the 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles- for the first time this season.

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO
   N CENTRAL NC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAIN UPPER TROUGH -- INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS -- SHOULD
   MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND INTO THE NERN CONUS
   THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS/SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  WHILE AN UPPER
   RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE
   FORECAST TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO N CENTRAL NC...
   SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
   
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON /MEAN-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG/...AIDED BY
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60.  SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
   INCREASE INVOF SURFACE LOW/FRONTS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  
   
   AS STORMS SPREAD EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...INTENSIFICATION IS
   FORECAST -- AIDED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  WHILE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL.  AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF
   SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED W-E WARM/STATIONARY FRONT.  SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE AND
   INSTABILITY WEAKENS.