...ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   MODELS INDICATE AS SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... MOVES
   EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE AREA
   BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON DEGREE ON INSTABILITY ...THOUGH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
   ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000
   J/KG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND
   700 MB. THIS WARMING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL LATE
   IN THE PERIOD PRECLUDE MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 5/14/2007 02:57:00 PM