DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   NORTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE PAC NW ALONG
   THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK/EMBEDDED FEATURES
   FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
   WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NY/PA DURING THE
   DAY...AS COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. 
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING ON SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
   THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 30 KT...EXPECT PRIMARY STORM MODE TO BE
   MULTICELLULAR AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES.  STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
   HEATING...AS STORMS SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

|posted by Sam Lillo @ 5/10/2007 06:21:00 AM