Severe Weather Outlook

A matter of destabilization

2009-07-06T19:00:00.002-04:00

I have limited time at the moment, but should have more this evening, and for certain tomorrow.

An upper level low will be dropping southeast toward the region tomorrow with its associated cold pool aloft. 500mb temperatures are projected between -15C and -17C. Meanwhile, low level southerly flow will transport moisture into southern New England, raising dew points into the low 60's. Surface temperatures are more uncertain as factoring in cloud cover will greatly limit highs for the day. Any sunshine however, and we could see decent instability develop. The mesoscale ETA has backed off instability, with a narrow CAPE profile for Keene. However, should we get sunshine, CAPE could reach 1000J/kg easily considering cold air aloft. Plus, the moist low levels will contribute to a very low LCL (between 100 and 300m). Again, it's all a matter of getting sunshine.

The wind profile tomorrow continues to look impressive. Starting at the surface, we have a moderate low level jet poking into the region from the south / southeast. The first kilometer is under 15kt southerly flow, turning to the southwest around 20kt between 1 and 2km. Above 2km, the winds become more unidirectional but increase to around 30 to 35kt through the mid levels. This is all under the left front quadrant of a 100kt westsouthwest upper level jet. Indeed, given destabilization tomorrow, it could become very very interesting. This includes the threat for large hail and damaging winds, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.

Storms firing, CT bullseye?

2009-06-30T13:05:00.002-04:00

Multiple clusters of severe thunderstorms have sprung up from eastern PA into central NY. The SPC has placed these areas along with far western New England in a severe thunderstorm watch.

At the moment, stratus clouds remain locked in over eastern MA and most of NH and ME. These areas are struggling to reach even the 70's. Meanwhile, the sun has been out across CT and western MA where temperatures have reached the mid to upper 70's and are on their way to highs in the low 80's. The Keene area remains on the boundary between these two air masses. The sun has peaked out once or twice, with temperatures in the low 70's at the moment. We should see some more sun this afternoon before convective influences rebuild the clouds back over us. There remains a decent influx of low level moisture with dew points in the low to mid 60's across most of southern New England up into western NH and VT. This is aided by a 20kt southeasterly low level jet from Long Island into western New England. This flow, with a southwesterly 500mb jet is producing 30 to 40kt of shear.

With moderate dew points and rising surface temperatures, surface CAPE has already eclipsed 1000J/kg over western New England and up to 2000J/kg now over CT and southwest MA. An 3km EHI of 3 has shown up in northern CT as of noon EDT which is suggestive of a high severe weather potential. Anybody with interests in southwestern New England today should closely monitor the development severe weather situation this afternoon.

Severe t'storms, hail tomorrow

2009-06-29T17:17:00.002-04:00

A strong upper level low sitting over the Great Lakes is providing a cold pool aloft with 500mb temperatures around -15C. The low is generating a 40kt mid level southwesterly jet across the northeast while a 995mb surface low produces southerly / south-southeasterly flow into southern New England. Abundant low level moisture combined with periods of sunshine tomorrow will destabilize the atmosphere with afternoon surface CAPE of 1000J/kg to 1500J/kg. This is a classic set up for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms to the southeast of the upper low, intersecting the low level jet. In this case, the severe threat area extends across most of New York State into western and southern New England.

With the deep cold pool aloft, the primary threat with any thunderstorms will be large hail. Damaging wind gusts are also possible and depending on the extent of the easterly component on the low level winds, we could see a tornado or two develop.

Storms, heavy rain possible today

2009-06-27T10:00:00.003-04:00

This morning features sunny skies across much of southern New England. For some down in Connecticut, it is welcomed for intense clean-up following yesterdays thunderstorms.

The solar heating we get this morning combined with dew points in the low 60's and a cold pool of air aloft will help destabilize the atmosphere for this afternoon. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop by 1pm. 0C wetbulb height is around 9600 feet this afternoon, sufficient for small hail in some thunderstorms. With PWATs around 1.3", expect heavy downpours to accompany thunderstorms. Winds throughout the column are weak (15kt and under), so storms will be slow moving (generally around 15kt), increasing the threat for flash flooding.

Thunderstorms will dissipate later tonight with the loss of diurnal heating.

Heavy rain, thunder approaching

2009-06-26T12:11:00.002-04:00

Heightened instability over central New England has allowed the complex approaching from the west to instensify. While not at severe levels, there are multiple embedded cells featuring heavy rainfall. These cells are relatively slow moving. Radar estimates indicate a swath of .8 to 1.2" per hour rainfall rates over southern Vermont. Extrapolating the core of the heavy rainfall places it just south of Keene by 1:15pm. If driving at this time, be prepared for sudden downpours and rapidly lowered visibility.

A couple rounds of storms

2009-06-26T10:28:00.002-04:00

Early morning convection moving through central New York will be approaching the area by 1pm this afternoon. The intensity of this complex has been waning, however central New England has been in partial sun all morning, with temperatures now up into the mid 70's with dew points in the low to mid 60's. This will provide fuel to kickstart some of these storms and we could see a few heavy downpours and gusty winds as they come through.

These storms are in association with a prefrontal trough. The cold front is currently over the eastern Lakes Region. IT will move eastward this afternoon and we'll see more thunderstorms spring up along that boundary. Instability over portions of southern and eastern New England will likely be lacking as cloudiness this morning is stubborn to break up. The main area for severe weather potential is over northeast PA and into southeastern New York state. A few secondary regions exist as well: one up toward northern New England near the triple point and in fact in some of the better instability; and the other back toward Kentucky where CAPE values will be vaulting toward 3000J/kg this afternoon. The primary threat will be damaging winds, however large hail will be possible especially across northern PA, NY and into northern New England where mid level temperatures are the lowest.

With summer comes thunderstorms

2009-06-25T16:41:00.003-04:00

Summer weather arrived today as the pesky ocean storm that was holding clouds and cold temperatures over the region has finally moved away. Low level moisture is very well established, with dew points in the 60's across the region. High temperatures have reached the low 80's over western New England and a few 90's have shown up southwest across Pennsylvania. All in all, this spells instability. CAPE has reached 1500 to 2000J/kg further west this afternoon. Low pressure entering Quebec is dragging a cold front across the eastern Great Lakes. A prefrontal trough is already the focus for a solid complex of severe storms over western New York with single cell storms popping up further east. These will tend to wane in strength with the loss of daytime heating, however there is still the chance for a shower and/or some thunder later tonight around midnight to 1am.

We will see an increase in clouds Friday morning as the cold front approaches the region. The timing of the front will largely dictate the severity of storms that develop. An early passage will result in limited time for destabilization, and vice versa. We will see an increase coverage of thunderstorms toward the early afternoon, with showers and storms becoming likely over western New England by 1pm, spreading to eastern areas by 4pm.

Winds will be unidirectional west-southwest with height with about 30kts of speed shear. This will support primarily damaging wind potential, although small hail cannot be ruled out further west, closer to the mid level cold pool.

The severe threat should end over western New England by 6pm, eastern zones 9pm.

Damaging t'storm winds possible

2009-05-09T12:55:00.002-04:00

Surface low pressure in southern Ontario will develop into western New York this afternoon. An associated cold front currently extends across the eastern Lakes region into western PA. This front is the focus for severe thunderstorm activity ongoing over western NY. The SPC has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for all of central and northern NY state into western VT. The right entrance region of a 125kt upper level jet max will advance into the region this afternoon with a 30kt southwesterly low level jet. This will boost helicity values up to 300 to 500J/kg, supporting supercells and bowing segments that could produce thunderstorm wind gusts to 70mph.

The main inhibitor will be instability, which is limited over much of New England by persistent cloudiness. Visible satellite imagery shows breaks over NY state into northern PA. These areas currently have temperatures up in the 70's, with dew points of 57 to 63. Across New England, surface temperatures are being held in the 60's, but still with dp's in the high 50's. Model guidance is indicating CAPE this afternoon reaching 500 to 1000J/kg with mid level lapse rates between 6 and 6.5C/km.

Secondary concerns include marginally severe hail with freezing levels around 650mb, as well as a slight risk of a tornado or two mainly to our west.

Based on WRF guidance, timing for storms in the Keene area is between 7pm and 9pm, with secondary rounds of weaker shower/storms later at night.

Stay tuned.

Heavy rain (thunder?) tomorrow

2009-04-02T19:30:00.003-04:00

A strong wave of low pressure will move into the Ohio Valley by tomorrow morning, with triple point low pressure developing in Virginia and moving north-northeast into SNE. A strong low level jet out of the SE will transport a significant amount of moisture into the region, raising PWATs up to 1 to 1.2". The heaviest rain will probably occur right around noontime with the main area of lift. After that shifts northward by 3pm, scattered showers will remain. As low pressure moves toward the region, the atmosphere will be destabilized enough for some elevated convection and thunderstorms. General consensus is for total totals to reach the high 40's to near 50 in the evening and early nighttime hours. However, at the same time the best dynamics will be offshore, limiting the thunder chances and reducing the possibility for severe storms to very slim.

In all, biggest threat will be heavy rainfall that could reach an .5" to .75" and up to 1.25" in any thunderstorms.

Heavy rain and t'storm threat Sunday

2009-03-26T09:32:00.002-04:00

An upper level low will move northeast to the Great Lakes region Sunday morning, extending an intense upper jet (max 130kt) aligned south to north across VA, PA, into western NY. Second jet max of 140kts will extend south of Newfoundland, providing good upper level divergence. Mid level low will be decently aligned with the upper levels, with vorticity maxes rotating through the Ohio Valley and another developing over the surface cold front in association with occlusion. Secondary surface low pressure will be developing in this zone in the mid Atlantic region, and will track northward as the cold front slides slowly eastward. Attendant warm front will be pushing northward with the low through the day, with a strong low level jet pumping warmth and moisture northward. The entire column will be saturated by mid morning. Temperature inversion of 10C will be located around the 850mb to 825mb level (1500m). Below this level, toward the surface, temperatures will have a large dependence on the northward extent of the warm front (before the cold frontal passage) and how thick morning cloudiness is. Regardless, mid level lapse rates and total totals in the high 40's will support elevated convection, and the possibility exists for some strong thunderstorm development with the cold front passage. Heavy rainfall will likely effect much of the region, with total accumulation around an inch through Sunday evening, locally as high 2" in thunderstorms.

Heavy showers (thunder?) Wed N

2009-02-10T20:16:00.003-05:00

Across Oklahoma and Arkansas, a significant severe weather / tornado event is underway. The SPC has placed the area under a moderate risk for severe weather, and numerous tornado watches have been issued.

This is all in association with an intense shortwave with a lot of energy that will close off and head our way tomorrow. At the surface, low pressure will shift into the southern plains tonight, with a triple point low developing over Missouri and moving into Michigan tomorrow evening. The adjoined warm front will move north across Pennsylvania and New Jersey Wednesday evening, crossing into SNE Wednesday night, with showers spreading across the area after 5pm.

Meanwhile, another ball of energy will drop south into northern Quebec, with low pressure swinging a cold front through southern Quebec. This will force the southern storm south a little bit, preventing a full surge of warm air.

Regardless, at least the northern edge of the warm sector will overtake the region Wednesday and Wednesday night, with highs tomorrow reaching the upper 40's, and lows only dropping to the upper 30's. In the warm sector there will be enough conditional instability to fuel some heavier downpours. As the cold front crosses around 4am Thursday morning, there could a be decent burst of instability out ahead, possibly sufficient for some elevated convection (above the inversion layer). This could mean some heavier downpours with some thunder as well. Given low freezing levels (for convective activity) around 10,000ft, some small hail could fall as well. Gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage.

Further south, the warm sector will be better established, with less cold air damming at the surface, and some strong thunderstorms may be possible across NJ and PA. Further west, into western PA, WV, and OH, conditions will support a continuation of some of the severe weather being experienced today.

Rain and Wind on Wednesday

2008-12-08T09:22:00.003-05:00

Low pressure lifting into the Great Lakes region will shift a warm front north of the area Tuesday evening. Some showers, maybe wintry precipitation to start, will overspread the region through Tuesday Night. The associated cold front will the approach on Wednesday. Strong southerly flow will usher much warmer temperatures into the area. High temperatures will reach the 50's across SNE, with some locations approaching 60 near the south coast. Dew points will reach 50 degrees with copious amounts of moisture lifting northward. Rain could fall heavy at times on Wednesday, with total rainfall of .5" to 1.5" possible.

In addition to the rain, a low level jet of 80kts will allow some significant winds to mix down to the surface. Winds of 20 to 30mph with gusts to 50mph will be possible in the region on Wednesday.

Rain and wind event Fri-Sat

2008-09-23T19:47:00.002-04:00

An upper level low off of the coast of North Carolina and a tropical system near the Dominican Republic will provide a one-two punch to the region to start the weekend. Because of the involvment of the tropics, all updates on the situation will happen in the Tropical Weather Outlook.

Thunderstorm threat Tuesday

2008-09-08T09:53:00.002-04:00

A cold front will approach the region tomorrow with overspreading clouds and a chance of showers. Colder air aloft coming in behind Hanna will allow some conditional instability to develop (around 500 to 800 J/kg) despite a lack of solar heating. In addition, a mid level jet of 40 to 60kts will create a significant threat for damaging winds. The possibility exists for a squall line formation to sweep through tomorrow afternoon around 3 in Keene, reaching eastern New England by 6. PWATs around 1.5" will allow some heavy downpours to occur, and any areas that received flooding from Hanna may have to deal with some renewed problems. SPC day 2 outlooks puts the region in a 30% risk for severe weather which supports my confidence in an active weather day tomorrow.

Main rounds coming tonight/tomorrow

2008-07-23T19:26:00.000-04:00

So far today all the action has been kept over eastern NY state. Widespread 2 inch plus amounts have been reported with upwards of 6 inches! The area of rain is moving towards the NNE and only has a small component in the direction of SNE. As for severe weather in that area, a severe thunderstorm watch was issued by the SPC earlier today covering all of CT, RI, S MA, E NY, down into NJ, and W PA, but so far thunderstorms have remained below severe limits. This is mainly due to a lack of any low level instability.

Across Connecticut, depending on where you were, you may have even scored a little bit of sun shine today. Further east, E CT into RI and SE MA were alone as the unexpected exclusive receivers of severe weather from one very intense cell that plowed through. North of the Mass Pike, skies were overcast all day long, but with generally under an inch of rainfall.

Tonight, the area of rain in E NY right now will slowly shift into western New England. Additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches will be possible mainly north of the Mass Pike. South of the pike it is questionable where the southern edge of the rain shield will lie.

In terms of severe weather tonight, the watch over SNE remains in effect until 10pm. Radar in New York City and Philadelphia show scattered thunderstorms with cores up to 60dBZ so cant rule out some signficant boomers through midnight. These storms arent working off of instability so much as they are triggered by overrunning warm moist air and sustained with the high levels of shear. These features will remain with us through tonight and tomorrow, so there is no reason for convection to wane. Considering the high shear levels, the threat for an isolated tornado still exists.

Short range models indicate a break in the rain early tomorrow morning, before the main event comes in. This will be a plume of heavy rainfall that will train over the region through tomorrow evening. The rain should reach the south coast by 2am EDT, extending up to N MA by 6am. Additional rainfall of 3 to 5 inches will be possible in western New England with lesser amounts as you go east. The NAM is indicating locally up to 10 inches across parts of W MA, VT, and SW NH while the GFS shows up to 5 inches.

Tornado threat for SNE today

2008-07-23T10:01:00.002-04:00

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon as mid level boundaries interact with abundant low level moisture. Anywhere that is able to scrape a second or two of sunshine today should watch out because any sunshine will contribute to instability which just a small amount of will be needed to fuel severe weather today. Jet dynamics are excellent, providing strong divergence aloft and contributing to over 45kts of shear. This will assist in multiple clusters of storms with damaging winds. In addition, the tornado threat will be high especially across SE NY and into western New England. Latest run of the SREF indicates CAPE around 2000J/kg in E PA and W NJ but dropping off quickly into New England. This will really be the main limiting factor as low level lapse rates will only be marginal for severe weather without any solar heating today. Mid level lapse rates will be increasing thoughout the day however, and this evening will likely feature an incredible severe weather preformance of multiple bows and supercells.

In addition to the tornado threat, training of thunderstorms will create significant flooding problems in any areas where this occurs. The heavy rain threat will continue through tomorrow, and the danger of flooding will be discussed later.

Also, the severe weather threat may last into tomorrow. Discussion on that will come later as well.

T'storms approaching from ENY

2008-07-22T16:06:00.003-04:00

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms have sprung up across New York state and as of 4pm have enter western New England. Main threat is more heavy rain and some gusty winds. The current level of instability will not be enough to support this complex becoming severe, however one or two storms may reach severe limits in winds.

Already a cell out ahead of the main cluster has entered southern Cheshire County. The leading storms in the main cluster will reach the area by 530pm, followed by a second round by 7pm.

Moderate flood potential this week

2008-07-21T15:53:00.009-04:00

Thunderstorms have barraged the region every day for the past week now. Some days Keene was missed, however yesterday through today, Cheshire county was hit hard by multiple thunderstorms.

The following are storm reports from Cheshire County yesterday evening:

2350 WALPOLE CHESHIRE NH -
4308 7243 TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 123.

0005 STODDARD CHESHIRE NH -
4308 7210 TREES DOWN ON ROUTE 123 AND ROUTE 9 IN SOUTH STODDARD.

0011 SWANZEY CHESHIRE NH -
4287 7228 TREES DOWN ON SWANZEY LAKE ROAD.

0050 WESTMORELAND CHESHIRE NH -
4297 7245 TREES DOWN.

On top of reports of wind damage across the county, heavy rains have caused some small stream flooding. At KEEN, 1.59" of rain has fallen in the last 24 hours. More is to come, possibly today and/or tomorrow, but in larger quantities Wednesday and Thursday.

The cause of all the thunderstorms and the wet weather is a stationary frontal boundary that has been vascillating across the region. At this time, the front is located to our south, in northern MA. To the south of the boundary, a very warm airmass remains intact with KHFD reporting 89 at the moment, while KEEN sits at 75.

Low pressure on the back end of the frontal boundary is currently over the Great Lakes region and will be moving slowly eastward, while a plume of moisture gets pulled northward out ahead of it on Wednesday raising PWATs (Precipitable Water) levels up to 2.0". Combined with a strong high pressure dam to the east forcing strong jet dynamics over the region, we have the makings for training thunderstorms and copious rainfall. Current model forecast estimates range from 1 to 3 inches.

Having this on top of what has already fallen in SW NH will likely aggrevate rivers and streams to the point of some rising over their banks. This situation will need to be monitored closely. Aside from the potential for torrential rains, severe thunderstorms look unlikely at this time considering constant a thick cloud deck, however CAPE up to 1000J/kg could assist in storms with strong winds.

www.KeeneWeather.com forecast
for 00z Tuesday through 12z Friday (60hrs):

Wednesday: Rain will enter the region from SW to NE, reaching KEEN between 10am and noon. There may be a break between 6pm and 8pm before another round of showers and thunderstorms moves in. A third and fourth round of thunderstorms will move through Thursday morning. The rain may be done by 3pm Thursday, with only scattered showers following Thursday Night into Friday. Dew points will range between 66 and 73 through the period, with high temperatures 82 to 84 both days and lows 64, 70, and 61 for TUE N, WED N, and THU N respectively. Total period rainfal: 2.5" to 3".

Severe tstorm / heavy rain threat

2008-07-02T13:39:00.003-04:00

Strong cold front will approach the region tomorrow with associated showers and thunderstorms. Strong unidirection flow will promote some bows with damaging winds through tomorrow night. Total totals, CAPE, and lifted indices are low for a severe threat, however significant speed shear is expected and latest model projected SWEAT index is high. Using latest GFS and NAM runs, KeeneWeather Severe Index (KWSI) is returning a 35 to 40% chance for thunderstorms, a 20 to 25% chance for severe thunderstorms in the form of multicell lines and perhaps a few super cells. Main threat is damaging wind, with flash flooding a potential issue due to expected PWATs around 1.5".

NWS:

MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE APPROACH OF A VIGOROUS COLD FRONTFOR THURSDAY. BELIEVE WE HAVE A VERY GOOD CHANCE FOR MANY GUSTS 50 KNOTS WITH THE NARROW LINE OF SCT TO BKN CONVECTION ATTENDING THE FRONT BARRELING INTO A HOT AIRMASS THAT HAS ITS OWN PRE CONVECTION GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 30-35KTS.

THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A HOT DAY THAT WILL FEATURE WIND.

CONTINUITY WITH PREV 4PM TUE FCST EXCEPTING RAISED POPS SLIGHTLY IN NW MASS FOR THE LATE DAY LINE...THIS IN LINE WITH 21Z SREF POPS.

PLS SEE SPC DAY 2 DISCUSSIONS ON THE SUBJECT OF SVR. SOUNDINGS HAVE 40+ KNOTS 10000 FT.

OVERALL...LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. HAVE HIGH CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS LATE THURS AFTN INTO THURS NITE FOR THIS AREA. GIVEN THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES THAT ARE PRESENTLY MODELED...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THURS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH THE BEST CHANCES TO THE WEST OF I-495 AND NORTH OF I-84. CONTINUED HIGH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR THURS NIGHT. WIND FIELDS VERY STRONG AND AM IMPRESSED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW. THIS LOOKS LIKE A BIG WIND DAMAGE DAY FOR A PTN OF SNE "IF" CONVECTION FIRES AS ANTICIPATED. MORE LATER.

HPC:

DAYS 2/3...

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST/MID ATLANTIC STATES...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPR TROF CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD THRU THE REGION WHILE REMAINING A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD LGT/MDT WITH POCKETS OF HVY PCPN THRU THE PERIOD. HEAVIEST AMTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR FROM THE MID MS VLY THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE CTRL APPALACHIANS WHERE THE MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE POOL AS WELL AS SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROF. AS NOTED IN THE PMDHMD...THE GFS IS EXHIBITING FEEDBACK PROBLEMS HERE AND IS LIKELY OVER-AMPLIFYING THE IMPULSE IT DEPICTS MOVING THRU THE MID MS VLY LATE THU...IN TURN OVERDEEPENING THE SFC WAVE AND CARRYING THE SFC BNDRY TOO FAR TO THE N ACROSS THE OH VLY ON FRI. OPTED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION...INSTEAD CHOOSING A BLEND OF THE NAM/21Z SREF MEAN/12Z ECMWF...WHICH WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR AND MORE REASONABLE IN THEIR DEPICTION OF THE SFC PATTERN HERE.

SPC:

...NEW ENGLAND/CNTRL APPALACHIANS/NY/PA/NJ...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN STATES THURSDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. SFC HEATING...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

AT MID-LEVELS...A 55 TO 70 KT JET MAX IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THURSDAY RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL AND HAIL THREAT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE SUPPORTIVE OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IN THE LATE AFTERNOON WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE STEEPEST.

Scattered convection Wednesday Night

2008-05-20T22:13:00.002-04:00

A shortwave will bring a weak boundary through the region late Wednesday morning triggering some showers in the region. Low level moisture will remain relatively high throughout the day with dew points 45 to 50 and RH above 70%. Current forecast soundings indicate low CAPE (generally under 500 J/kg), however there will be a weak cap, and mid level cold air advection could assist in some thunderstorms with small hail particularly in New York state, but not ruling out convection reaching New England. Latest WRF radar simulation forecast indicate a line crossing Keene around 8pm tomorrow.

Major tornado outbreak in Midwest

2008-04-09T20:12:00.002-04:00

It should be noted that a major or even historic tornado outbreak is likely over the next 36 hours across portions of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri, and Illinois. Already ongoing is a significant tornado outbreak concentrated in northern Texas and Oklahoma, and approaching Arkansas. Very intense thunderstorms of core reflectivity over 70dBZ are currently in an environment of high vertical shear supportive of long tracking tornadoes. This high shear environment will only intensify further tomorrow along with increased instability.

Interests in these areas should monitor the latest bullitins issued by the NWS and the SPC. www.spc.noaa.gov.

Very nice early season squall line

2008-04-01T22:29:00.002-04:00

The first thunderstorm of the year for Keene this evening. Winds gusted to 44mph, with moderate rainfall, and moderate lightning. Not a bad start at all.

Further south is getting rocked even harder by this line of storms. Currently severe thunderstorms moving through north central CT and S MA with heavy rain and damaging winds. There have also been a few reports of hail. In addition, the squall line extended to the south as it progressed to the east and produced a storm with some rotation on radar. NWS issued a tornado warning for Morris County in northern NJ. So far no reports in from that storm however. Reports of scattered power outages in portions of CT and NJ.

Here's a radar picture as the storms approached Keene. Notice also the tor-warned cell in northern NJ.

Severe t'storms in NY

2008-04-01T19:10:00.002-04:00

A segment of the line has intensified near south central NY. This segment has recently shown radar returns of over 50dBZ, and is bowing slightly indicating the potential for high winds. In addition, the cluster of showers and thunderstorms in Bennington County VT has strengthened, likely by orographic enhancement. Downsloping and loss of daytime heating will likely weaken these storms as they approach the area however.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NYC105-PAC069-127-020000-
/O.NEW.KBGM.SV.W.0011.080401T2320Z-080402T0000Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
720 PM EDT TUE APR 1 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SULLIVAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...
  NORTHERN LACKAWANNA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...
  WAYNE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 719 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM EQUINUNK TO PLEASANT MOUNT TO
  CARBONDALE TO DUNMORE..AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WAYMART AND MOUNT COBB BY 725 PM EDT...
  TRESSLARVILLE...STALKER...PROMPTON AND LAKE ARIEL BY 730 PM EDT...
  FREMONT...ROSCOE...HANKINS AND RUTLEDGEDALE BY 735 PM EDT...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE AT 1-877-633-6772...OR BY EMAIL AT
BGM.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

Potential t'storms later this evening

2008-04-01T18:52:00.003-04:00

A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms are currently moving ENE through NY. A cluster on radar moving through SVT may affect Keene by 830pm. Northern Cheshire County will see showers within the next half hour. Could see some locally heavy downpours with a few rumbles of thunder. In addition, a few storms could contain gusty winds. Nothing extreme, but our first real potential this season.

Slight risk severe today Record heat in Boston

2007-09-08T09:25:00.000-04:00


   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0743 AM CDT SAT SEP 08 2007
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF SRN NY/NRN
   PA AND NEW ENGLAND...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM THE NRN RCKYS TO THE
   UPR MS VLY THIS PERIOD...N OF ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SRN
   RCKYS ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST.  STRONG IMPULSE
   THAT CROSSED THE UPR GRT LKS YESTERDAY WILL CONTINUE ENE INTO ERN
   QUEBEC AS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SETTLES SLOWLY S/SE ACROSS NEW
   ENGLAND...THE LWR OH VLY AND THE SRN PLNS.
   
   FARTHER W...IMPULSE NOW IN CNTRL MT SHOULD CONTINUE E INTO NRN MN
   AND WEAKEN TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IN CNTRL BC
   AMPLIFIES SE INTO THE NRN RCKYS.  FAIRLY STRONG FRONT WITH MT SYSTEM
   WILL NOSE S ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB...WHILE ERN PART OF
   SAME BOUNDARY REMAINS MORE DIFFUSE AND MOVES SLOWLY S ACROSS THE UPR
   MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS.  
   
   ...SRN NY/NRN PA INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR S OF COLD FRONT AND DEFORMATION CLOUD
   BAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN STATES TODAY...WHERE RECORD OR
   NEAR-RECORD MAX SFC TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR.  BUT MID LVL LAPSE
   RATES...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAK
   AS LEAD UPR IMPULSE LIFTS RAPIDLY ENE INTO QUEBEC.  A BAND OF SCTD
   TO BROKEN STORMS SHOULD NEVERTHELESS FORM AHEAD OF FRONT AND
   AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD BAND OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...NY AND PA. 
   GIVEN MLCAPE OF 1500 TO PERHAPS TO 2000 J/KG...MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WSW FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS THAT COULD YIELD A
   FEW SPOTS OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
449 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2007

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
***RECORD HEAT LIKELY AROUND 2-3PM AT BOS BDL***

CLOUD PATCHES AS SEEN ON IMAGERY AND OBS NW MA...MONADNOCKS...LI AND
CC CANAL WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE REVEALING FULL SEARING
SUN WITH HAZE ALOFT.

MWN WB OF 55F AT 3AM PLUS 83 DEG TEMP AT SYR SUGGESTS RECORD HEAT FOR
BDL/BOS TODAY WITH 93-97F LIKELY IN THE MHT-ASH-BVY-BOS CORRIDOR AND
92-95 CEF-BDL. 06Z NAM HAS 2M TEMP AT BOS OF 93-94 AND BDL CEF 92-93.
WE NORMALLY ADD ABOUT 3-5F TO THESE TEMPS ON SW FLOW AND 5 TO 6F ON
WNW SFC WIND. BLV ITS SAFE TO EXPECT 96 AT BOS AND 95 AT BDL/CEF TDY.

WE WILL NEED TO THINK OF UPGRADING TO A HEAT ADVY FOR ESSEX COUNTY
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY SUFFOLK COUNTY MASS AS WELL AS ERN HILLSBOROUGH
IN OUR 10AM REVIEW.

CURRENT HI FCST TO 99F VCNTY LWM TODAY. NO HEAT ADVY BUT CLOSE CALL.

CAPE COD AREA SHOULD SEE GUST 24-28KTS THIS AFTN.


 &&

.SHORT TERM /NOON SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
***RECORD HEAT MAY GIVE WAY TO ISOLATED SVR STORMS NRN MASS LATE IN
 THE DAY THEN TEMPS 25 DEGS COOLER IN NE MASS ON SUNDAY AFTN COMPARED
 TO THIS AFTN***

SVR RISK...PLS SEE SPC DISCUSSION. WE ARE RESTRICTING SVR POTENTIAL A
LITTLE FURTHER N IN THE PRIMARY KI AXIS WITH INITIATION BY THE CFP.
TT NR 47.  THERE WILL BE CHANGES TO THE FCST MIDDAY ON BEST AREA FOR
CONVECTION. SUFFICE TO SAY...ALREADY COOKING IN UPPER NYS...WITH
RECORD HEAT...POSSIBLE BRIEF INVERTED V SOUNDING...WILL MAXIMIZE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL PROVIDED CONVECTION OCCURS WHICH IS NOT A GUARANTEE.

MARINERS BOSTON N SHORE SHOULD BE ALERT FOR A POSSIBLE NASTY LATE DAY
STORM. MWS/SMW POTENTIAL.

PWAT 1.75"+ AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...WOULD NORMALLY RESULT IN DEWPOINTS
LIKELY APPROACHING 70 BUT WITH DRY SFC SOILS...KEPT THE DEWS TRIM.

1 INCH OF R POSSIBLE IN 30 MIN WITH ISOLATED CELLS NRN MASS BUT NOT A
DROUGHT BUSTER.

COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO SNE SAT NIGHT BUT MAY END UP STALLING
NEAR MASS PIKE OVERNIGHT AS BEST PRESSURE RISES LIFT NE INTO THE
MARITIMES. WE DO EXPECT SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO LINGER INTO THE EVENING N
ZONES AS CDFNT MOVES INTO REGION.

THEN AS W FRONT LIFTS N LATER SUN...HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE S NH WITH
TSTMS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE N CT W MASS SW NH.

Strong thunderstorm nearing Cheshire County

2007-08-31T08:40:00.000-04:00


Short Term Forecast
Cheshire (New Hampshire)

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
811 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007
NHZ011-311300-
CHESHIRE NH-
811 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007
.NOW...
AT 803 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF CHESTERFIELD...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
NORTH OF BRATTLEBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... CHESTERFIELD AROUND 820 AM
WESTMORELAND AROUND 830 AM WALPOLE AROUND 850 AM SURRY...KEENE...
GILSUM AND SULLIVAN AROUND 900 AM.
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE RAINFALL RATES OF AROUND ONE
INCH PER HOUR.
$$
STRAUSS

Severe weather threat down

2007-08-03T07:42:00.000-04:00

While the SPC continues a slight risk over eastern NY and central and northern New England, it appears that southern NH will not experience anything in the way of severe weather today. The main area of instability will be located over northern NY and New England, with LIs between -6 and -10 and CAPE over 2500j/kg. Further south, a moderate cap will hold any convection from forming with CAPE of only 1000 to 1500, it doesnt appear likely for the cap to be broken this afternoon. Storm motion out of the south and southwest will keep anything that forms in NY to the north. All in all, Keene may see a thunderstorm this evening, but no severe weather is expected at this point.

SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2007-08-02T16:38:00.000-04:00


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT THU AUG 02 2007
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
   THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS...
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND/NRN APPALACHIANS...
   A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER SERN CANADA WILL MOVE EWD TONIGHT
   INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH QUEBEC
   APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...DEWPOINTS IN
   THE MID 60S F AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY BE SUPPORTIVE OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
   
   CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
   DURING THE DAY AS HEIGHTS GRADUALLY FALL FROM WEST TO EAST. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
   WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW TO MID-LEVEL WINDS. ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY
   REMAINS CONCERNING THE DOMINANT STORM TYPE...THE SHEAR AND
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND
   SEVERE MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS. IF A COLD POOL CAN ORGANIZE...THEN
   THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY BECOME ENHANCED ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
   ENGLAND. OTHERWISE...THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS SHOULD HAVE A
   THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

Severe Threat Friday

2007-08-01T14:15:00.000-04:00

SPC:::


   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 AM CDT WED AUG 01 2007
   
   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NERN STATES...
   
   ...NERN STATES...
   
   MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER THE NERN STATES EARLY FRIDAY IN ADVANCE
   OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL EXTEND FROM SERN QUEBEC INTO THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES AREA. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY
   SERN QUEBEC SWWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
   SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH -10C AT 500 MB WILL
   SPREAD EWD OVER THE WARM SECTOR WITH 6.5 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
   DESTABILIZES. PRIMARY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NE OF REGION WITHIN
   ZONE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS. HOWEVER...BELT OF WLY 25-35 KT FLOW
   IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER WILL SPREAD OVER MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND ALONG
   SRN PERIPHERY OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   AROUND 20 TO 30 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...SOME
   STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND CLUSTERS WITH AN INCREASING
   THREAT OF MAINLY DAMAGING WIND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
   STRONGER STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

NWS:::


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
338 AM EDT WED AUG 1 2007

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C WITH FULL
MIXING UP THE DRY ADIABAT TO 800 MILLIBARS SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE POSTED AS HEAT
INDICES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR A TIME FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE CAPES RISING TO 2500 J/KG WITH TOTAL
TOTALS IN THE MID 50S. THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE 250 MILLIBAR
JET WILL CROSS LOCATIONS NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WIND FIELDS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (HELICITY VALUES) ARE NOT
TOO IMPRESSIVE...WITH MAXIMUM SPEEDS OF ABOUT 50 KT AT THE 250
MILLIBAR LEVEL. HOWEVER IF UPDRAFTS CAN REACH THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
GIVEN IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL LIKELY OCCUR.
IN ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO 2.2 G/KG DURING
THE AFTERNOON WOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE STORMS
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OUTLOOKED FOR FRIDAY DAY THREE.

OVERALL WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BUT MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE
WEATHER RISK IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

-----

Overall, looking at excellent potential. GFS Ensembles have good agreement on near perfect timing of storm passage. NAM forecast lifted indices range between -6 and -10 across New England and even the GFS (which usually underestimates) forecasts -4 to -8. With the SPC already specifying a 30% area, count on a moderate risk for day 2 tomorrow if everything continues.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #505

2007-07-10T14:18:00.000-04:00


   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 505
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   100 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE
          EASTERN NEW YORK
          VERMONT
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
   900 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
   BURLINGTON VERMONT TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PITTSFIELD
   MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 504...
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
   INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
   LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.  THIS INSTABILITY
   COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR /30-40KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK
   SHEAR/ INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED...SEVERE STORMS
   INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27030.

The latest (1630z) SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook:

Wind: 30%, Hail: 30%, Torn: 2%


   ...NY INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
   A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT ALONG AND SW OF A
   BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT EXTENDS FROM ERN MA INTO UPSTATE NY.  LIKE
   YESTERDAY...THERE IS LITTLE LARGE SCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...ASIDE FROM SUBTLE SPEED
   MAXIMA BRUSHING UPSTATE NY WITHIN THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
   MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES.  STILL...THE 12Z ALB SOUNDING SUGGESTS
   THAT MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 2500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO 88-91 F.  WIDELY
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT
   AND LAKE BREEZES...AS WELL AS TERRAIN INFLUENCES.  THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...GIVEN THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR WITH 30-40 KT MID LEVEL
   FLOW.

SL Keene Prediction:

Wind: 35%, Hail: 25%, Torn: 2%
Timing: Small cell building in southern VT may affect Keene before 4pm. Otherwise, storms are moving slowly and any development that occurs in NY will make it to Keene after 4pm.

Quick analysis on today's severe potential

2007-07-10T06:31:00.000-04:00

Models have a strong consensus on modest instability this afternoon. The ETA is particularly aggressive.

Expect convection developing by noon in northern and western NY as well as northern VT. Storms will quickly become severe with large hail, damaging winds, frequent CTG lightning, as well as torrential rains.

SL Keene Prediction:
20% overall severe
20% wind > 58mph
15% hail > .75"
2% tornado

First storms will reach Keene between 1430 and 1500 this afternoon. Numerous storms will pop up in northern VT and NY. Count on thunderstorm threat to continue through 10pm.

Regional Prediction:

Threat areas: central, western, northern NY; VT; central, southern NH; northwestern, northcentral MA

Greatest threat (>25%): northern NY, central VT, central NH

12pm: northern NY, western NY, northern VT
2pm: northern NY, western NY, central NY, northern VT, central VT, central NH
4pm: northern NY, western NY, central NY, all VT, all NH
6pm: northern NY, central NY, all VT, all NH, northern MA, western ME

SPC Day 1 Outlook: Slight Risk

2007-07-10T06:17:00.000-04:00


   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0122 AM CDT TUE JUL 10 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NY AND NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...NY/VT/NH/MA...
   SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH A
   FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS NRN NY AND SRN QUEBEC. SOUTH OF THE
   BOUNDARY...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE UPPER 60S F AND
   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
   MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN NY...VT
   AND NH TODAY AND THIS AREA APPEARS TO HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
   FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT.
   
   CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE
   REGION SHOW ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS AND ENOUGH
   FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS FOR SUPERCELLS. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
   POTENTIAL WILL BE MOSTLY LIKELY IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
   WIND DAMAGE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH MCS DEVELOPMENT
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

Cheshire County storm reports

2007-07-09T21:36:00.000-04:00

Storm Reports from Chesire County, NH
Local Storm Report

07/09/2007 0430 PM
Nelson, Cheshire County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by law enforcement.
Trees/wires down

07/09/2007 0635 PM
2 miles E of Jaffrey, Cheshire County.
Hail e1.00 inch, reported by law enforcement.

07/09/2007 0647 PM
Jaffrey, Cheshire County.
Thunderstorm wind damage, reported by public.
Trees down Prescott and nutting rds

Last quick look at tonight

2007-07-09T19:51:00.000-04:00

Two thunderstorms, about 30 to 40 miles west-northwest of Albany, are heading in a general westerly direction at about 25 miles per hour.

There is a 60% chance that V7 maintains strength and affects Keene later tonight. The timing would be around midnight.

Here is the current (1947) radar readings for the two cells:


 F7 62 dBZ 36,000 ft. 58 kg/m² 60% 100% 1.50 in. 32 knots W (281) 
 V7 61 dBZ 24,000 ft. 40 kg/m² 20% 80%  0.75 in. 23 knots W (262)

Incredible thunderstorm in N VT!

2007-07-09T19:29:00.000-04:00

A thunderstorm with a mesocyclone on radar in northern Vermont is returning 71dBZ radar echoes with a VIL of 84 kg/m^2 and hail estimates of >4.00"

This storm is very dangerous, if you are in the path of this storm, take cover immediately.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
VTC017-100015-
/O.NEW.KBTV.SV.W.0061.070709T2317Z-070710T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
717 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VERMONT

* UNTIL 815 PM EDT.

* AT 712 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  WILLIAMSTOWN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WASHINGTON AND ORANGE AROUND 730 PM EDT.
  EAST ORANGE AROUND 740 PM EDT.
  WAITS RIVER AROUND 745 PM EDT.
  VERSHIRE AROUND 750 PM EDT.
  CORINTH AROUND 755 PM EDT.
  WEST FAIRLEE AROUND 805 PM EDT.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 4415 7258 4413 7244 4416 7241 4422 7241
      4403 7208 4400 7212 4395 7210 4388 7218
      4380 7220 4378 7223 4409 7263

$$

LAHIFF

An active Monday evening

2007-07-09T19:18:00.000-04:00

Scattered thunderstorms, many now up to severe status are scouring the region right now. Keene was scraped by one cell heading east of the city. This storm is now in southwestern Hillsborough county and is the strongest on Albany radar at this time. Radar estimates at 1900edt recorded 3.25" hail along with a VIL (Vertically Integrated Liquid) of 79 kg/m^2! In addition, this storm is capable of winds in excess of 70mph. If you are in the path of this storm, take cover immediately.

More storms are moving east-southeast across New York. These will continue to thrive on the abundant low level moisture available. While instability will decrease as the evening wears on, the possibility exists for another round of thunderstorms with torrential downpours later tonight in Keene.

Line of thunderstorms this morning

2007-07-09T06:52:00.000-04:00

A line of strong thunderstorms containing gusty winds is currently moving through VT. These storms will likely weaken on their approach into NH, however will still pack a punch by the time they reach Keene.

---

Severe weather is possible through Wednesday. Stay tuned.

Heat and severe threats this week

2007-07-07T19:08:00.000-04:00

This upcoming week will be very active across New England and in fact across the eastern two thirds of the nation. The western heat ridge will finally break down somewhat, with a high building across te southern Plains and southeast and a heat transfer from the west. Tomorrow, this heat will be introduced to the northeast as a warm front associated with a low entering southwestern Alberta moves northeast. Now begins the active week of weather...

1. Heat on Sunday: Warm front moves northeast, 850mb temps bumped up to 20 to 21C - Highs in the upper 80's in Keene (slight shot at 90), with low to mid 90's across SNE.

2. Severe thunderstorms on Sunday: Low chance, atmosphere will be capped and instability will likely not be enough to break through until too late. However, winds will be adequate as the front crosses, creating possibly enough lift for a few isolated storms. Any that do develop will thrive, likely becoming severe with main threat being wind, moderate threat for hail, although with shear, tornado threat does exist.
SPC:


   ...UPSTATE NY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM UPSTATE NY EWD ACROSS NRN
   VT/NH AT LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL WNWLY WINDS NEAR 50 KT...WITH
   WSWLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL SUPPORT 40-50 KT OF DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR. THE MID LEVEL IMPULSE...FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE
   GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT...WILL APPROACH THIS REGION LATE
   AFTERNOON...WITH WARM FRONT LIKELY TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION. DESPITE A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DEWPOINTS IN
   THE LOWER 60S...BY THE TIME STORMS DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE REGION
   ...AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE. THIS MAY
   SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE
   REGION LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.

3. Heat on Monday: 850mb temps up to 21 to 22C with partly to mostly sunny skies, should reach about 2C under max potential. Looking at lower 90's in Keene and W MA, mid 90's E MA and RI, and upper 90's possible for C/N CT, S/C MA. Humidity will not be as significant as the last heat wave, with dew points generally 64 to 68, but still will support heat indices of 93 to 95 in Keene, maxing at 102 to 104 in CT and S MA.

4. Severe thunderstorms on Monday: Warm front sinks south as a cold front Sunday Night, moves back north as a warm front once again creating enough lift and good wind profiles for severe weather potential. However, again a cap will be present, reducing the chances for thunderstorms development. instability will be slightly greater than Sunday so the cap may break in the afternoon. Monday will likely be more active severe weather wise than Sunday.
SPC:


   ...NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO LOWER GREAT LAKES...
   PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO ONTARIO/NRN
   GREAT LAKES REGION ON DAY 2 /SUNDAY/ SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON DAY 3 /MONDAY/.  DESPITE LITTLE...IF ANY...
   HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...STRONG WLY MID LEVEL
   WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THIS REGION CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DEEP WLY
   SHEAR.  SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTENDANT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS
   PROGGED TO MOVE SSEWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES ON MONDAY.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
   BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND THUS SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH
   ACTIVITY LIKELY BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH
   SRN NEW ENGLAND TO SRN PA LATER MONDAY EVENING...PRIOR TO DIURNAL
   DECREASE IN INSTABILITY.

5. Heat on Tuesday: Front to the north will keep 850mb temps up around 20C, and with solar mixing, temperatures will climb to the mid 80's before noontime. However, a trough along the eastern Appalachian Mts will allow cloud development, pushing temperatures back a little. Expect highs in Keene generally 88 to 90.

6. Severe thunderstorms on Tuesday: Cap will remain no longer. Colder air moves in at the mid levels, with increasing lapse rates. CAPE should be up possibly 3000+ j/kg. Tuesday could turn out to be a significant severe weather day.

7. Wednesday: Front sinks south of the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Somewhat cooler air will move in.

8. Thunderstorms on Thursday: This will be the final passage of this front. Starting north of the area from Wednesday Night, it will sweep south across the region on Thursday. The air will generally be more stable so not expecting any significant severe weather as of now. Still could get some thunderstorm action however.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #489

2007-07-05T15:54:00.000-04:00


   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 489
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   335 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          MUCH OF CONNECTICUT
          MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS
          SOUTHWEST MAINE
          SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE
          EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK
          NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
          SOUTHERN VERMONT
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 335 PM UNTIL
   900 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF
   MONTICELLO NEW YORK TO 25 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF PORTSMOUTH NEW
   HAMPSHIRE.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 487...WW 488...
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTN IN ZONE OF 30-40 KT DEEP WLY SHEAR
   AND SFC HEATING FROM THE LWR MOHAWK AND LWR HUDSON VLYS ENE INTO
   CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND.  LOCALLY-BACKED FLOW INVOF THE HUDSON AND CT
   RVR VLYS MAY ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LVL STORM ROTATION AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES...BUT MAIN SVR THREATS SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL FROM SCTD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWS IN
   MULTICELL BANDS.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 28030.

The probabilities are very interesting as well:

Probabilities are for inside the watch area.
2 or more tornadoes: 20%
10 or more severe wind events: 70%
10 or more severe hail events: 50%
6 or more combined severe hail/wind: >95%

In addition the latest SPC outlook (20z) just added a 2% tornado risk in southern New England. Currently there is one cell returning a mesocyclone signal in northwest MA.

Stay tuned.

Storms approaching

2007-07-05T14:45:00.000-04:00

The threat of severe thunderstorms has increased. The clouds have broken up more than anticipated, and solar heating has brought temperatures into the lower 80's with dew points in the mid 60's. Lifted indices currently between -2 and -4 will be sufficient for thunderstorms to become severe this afternoon.

A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for western and central New York state. A watch will likely be issued for parts of New England by 4pm.

Here is the latest from the SPC:


   ...GRT LKS/NERN STATES...
   CYCLONIC FLOW WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTMS
   ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE NATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SFC HEATING MAXIMIZES LOW LVL
   DESTABILIZATION.  WITH SFC DEW POINTS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S AND
   RELATIVELY COOL AIR PRESENT ALOFT...ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FAIRLY
   UNSTABLE.  MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM 500-1000 J/KG OVER SRN/ WRN NEW
   ENGLAND TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER PARTS OF THE OH VLY.  VALUES SHOULD
   ALSO APPROACH 1000 J/KG OVER MI/WI BENEATH COLDER AIR ALOFT /AROUND
   MINUS 14C AT 500 MB/ ON N SIDE OF UPR JET.
   
   LARGE SCALE UVV SHOULD INCREASE OVER LWR MI/IND AND OH AS WI IMPULSE
   DROPS SEWD...AND WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD UPSTATE
   NY/NRN PA AND WRN NEW ENGLAND AS LK HURON DISTURBANCE/OH VORT
   CONTINUE E.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL... HOWEVER...REMAIN WEAK.
   UPLIFT WILL BE CONFINED TO WEAK CONFLUENCE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH UPR
   DISTURBANCES...AND TO LAKE/TERRAIN- INDUCED BOUNDARIES.
   
   40-50 KT W TO WNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY-CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT
   SHOULD YIELD MULTIPLE BANDS/CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH SMALL SCALE
   BOWS.  THESE WILL POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND/MARGINALLY SVR
   HAIL THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH ISOLATED SVR STORMS POSSIBLY
   LINGERING OVER PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NRN MID ATLANTIC
   REGION TIL ABOUT 06Z.

Severe threat for Thursday continues

2007-07-04T14:41:00.000-04:00

Much will depend on how much sun Keene will receive tomorrow for what level of instability can be achieved. Mid level winds will reach 40 to 50kts tomorrow across the Northeast and Ohio Valley, creating a favorable environment for thunderstorm development. The main inhibiting factor will be a lack of surface heating if cloud cover remains throughout the day Thursday. Much will depend on how far the warm front can lift northward to clear skies about 100 miles southward.

The main threat will be damaging winds and a 30% probability has been outlined on the forecast. Severe hail will be possible, but not a prominent threat. The chance for tornadic development does exist, however, with the warm front further north, despite better instability, shear will be displaced northward as well. The two will not match up, and therefore the threat is lower than previously considered.

Thursday Severe Threat: SPC Outlook

2007-07-03T07:53:00.000-04:00


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0240 AM CDT TUE JUL 03 2007
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
   ATLANTIC STATES SWWD ALONG THE OH RIVER...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS DIGGING SEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
   SUPPORT FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND A GRADUAL EWD SHIFT TO LONG WAVE
   TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS ERN PARTS OF CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES. 
   IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH HUDSON
   VALLEY AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH SWRN EXTENSION OF FRONT PUSHING
   MORE SLOWLY SWD THROUGH THE OH AND MID MS RIVER VALLEYS.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES SWWD ALONG THE OH
   RIVER...
   
   DESPITE PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND
   ADJACENT PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN...WSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
   COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
   ORIGINATING OVER THE OH VALLEY EWD/NEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
   AND NEW ENGLAND.  THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH SOME STEEPENING OF
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
   FRONT OVER NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE DELMARVA.  RICHER BOUNDARY
   LAYER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT COMPARATIVELY STRONGER INSTABILITY OVER
   THE SRN OH VALLEY.
   
   TSTMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING ALONG FRONT THURSDAY MORNING WITH A
   GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
   AS INFLOW AIR MASS DESTABILIZES.  THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER WIND
   FIELDS ARE FORECAST OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY AND NEW ENGLAND SWD INTO
   THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...IN CONCERT WITH THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT FALLS.  HERE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
   LINE WITH EMBEDDED LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
   DAMAGING WINDS.  SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS ONCE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.
   
   ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SWWD ALONG COLD
   FRONT INVOF THE OH RIVER.  WHILE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
   STRONGER...STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
   REMAIN NE OF THIS AREA.  THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
   SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED
   INSTABILITY.

Still looking out for a tornado threat in parts of eastern NY into western New England. Instability will be marginal, with vertical shear more than adequate for supercell development. The SPC will likely bump part of the 15% area up to 30% tomorrow, possibly even up to moderate risk criteria on the day 1 outlook. Overall, Thursday is a potentially dangerous day for the Northeast.

Severe threat for Thursday

2007-07-01T19:47:00.000-04:00

With a more northerly track of the storm Wednesday and Thursday, it is becoming more likely that thunderstorms will be a major threat during this period.

Hazardous weather outlook:

-Wednesday - could have some significant rainfall totals as short wave busts through out ahead of warm front with steadily increasing low level moisture. Looking at over half an inch of rain for sure through Wednesday night, but could be more.

Thunderstorms with the short wave will be limited due to cloud cover all day with a lack of surface heating and adequate instability.

-Thursday - heavy rainfall once again will be a threat, especially in thunderstorms. PWATS up to 1.7 to 1.9 likely. Areas hit by storms will likely have rainfall totals over an inch by Friday morning.

Severe thunderstorms will be a threat for western New England. Warm front crosses the region in the late morning and then stalls out. Where it stalls out will be critical to where severe thunderstorms threaten. If it moves far enough east and north, Keene will be in the warm sector with highs nearing 80 and adequate CAPE and LIs. With warm frontal boundary about 50 miles northeast and low pressure in southern Ontario, surface winds will shift to the south (clearing skies allowing heating) while upper level winds remain from the west. This will produce strong enough shear to develop rotation in thunderstorms and possibly a few tornadoes could touch down before all is said and done.

All in all, a low confidence forecast with a lot of potential for dangerous weather. Stay tuned.

Thunderstorm threat over

2007-06-28T16:33:00.000-04:00

Front is still a few hours away, however main axis of storms is far to our south, with no convection to the north. Expect partly cloudy skies through tonight, with temperatures falling into the 50s as the front passes.

Severe thunderstorm watch to the east

2007-06-28T14:56:00.000-04:00

Watch just issued including Hillsborough County, NH and Worcester County, MA. While Keene may still experience thunder this afternoon, the threat of severe weather is diminishing quickly.

Here is the outline of the watch area:

Mesoscale Discussion 1308

2007-06-28T13:02:00.000-04:00


   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1308
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1152 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND...AND MUCH OF THE
   NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES/UPPER OH VALLEY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 281652Z - 281815Z
   
   TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING OR
   MORE FOCUSED SEVERE THREAT.  ONE OR MORE WATCHES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
   AFTERNOON.
   
   WITH INHIBITION WEAK IN PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...INSOLATION IS
   ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MUCH OF
   THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.  PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT/LOW-LEVEL DRYING IS
   DIMINISHING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THROUGH MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK
   THROUGH THE HUDSON/CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.  BUT...TO THE
   SOUTH/EAST...STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   THIS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF STRONGER MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW
   FIELD IN THE BASE OF EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH.  AND...WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL LIMIT OR SLOW CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. 
   HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000-2000
   J/KG...AND UNSATURATED LOW/MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...WILL BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS AND DOWNDRAFTS...CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND
   STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
   
   AS COLD POOLS MERGE DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING...
   CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT.  THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
   TO THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ...FROM THE WASHINGTON
   D.C./BALTIMORE AREA INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...WHERE STRONGEST
   HEATING IS ONGOING ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES.

Special Weather Statement

2007-06-28T08:51:00.000-04:00


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
843 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND A FEW WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE HIGHEST RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON IS
FROM THE HARTFORD SPRINGFIELD AREA TO WORCESTER...BOSTON...WOONSOCKET
AND MARSHFIELD.

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING
MIDDAY BUT THE MAIN EVENT SHOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MASS TURNPIKE.

MARINERS IN THE BOSTON AREA SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING SOMETIME BETWEEN 1 PM AND
3 PM.

THOSE WITH PLANS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE SHELTER ON SHORT NOTICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MAY BE ISSUED DURING MIDDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF DAMAGING THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE UPDATED LATE THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY THE
RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS SOUTH COASTAL SECTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

One hour warning

2007-06-27T17:57:00.000-04:00

Multicellular cluster of storms currently entering Windham county is about 1 hour away from Keene. These storms are capable of producing winds over 50mph along with frequent lightning and 2 inch per hour rainfall.

Stay tuned

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458

2007-06-27T17:00:00.000-04:00


   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 458
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   440 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          EASTERN CONNECTICUT
          MUCH OF MASSACHUSETTS
          SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
          NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
          COASTAL WATERS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 440 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST OF
   WESTFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BOSTON
   MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 456...WW 457...
   
   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NY WILL MOVE
   EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE OTHER
   ISOLATED CELLS FORMS ACROSS REGION.  AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH MORE INTENSE
   STORMS.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27025.

Right now we have a few significant thunderstorms heading our way from New York as well as ones developing in Vermont. These storms could produce wind gusts over 60mph, hail over an inch in diameter as well as rainfall rates of over 2 inches per hour. STAY TUNED.

Severe thunderstorm watch in NY

2007-06-27T13:55:00.001-04:00


   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 456
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   100 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          WESTERN CONNECTICUT
          WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS
          NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW YORK
          CENTRAL AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
          SOUTHERN VERMONT
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
   800 PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES EAST
   NORTHEAST OF PITTSFIELD MASSACHUSETTS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
   DUBOIS PENNSYLVANIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE
   THROUGHOUT REGION OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS PARTS OF NY/PA. 
   THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
   EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL
   SHEAR...ISOLATED MULTICELL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27025.

Special Weather Statement

2007-06-27T12:50:00.000-04:00



SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1215 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 230 AND 5 PM...

A VERY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT BETWEEN
230 AND 5 PM.

THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
WILL CONTAIN A PERIOD OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG WITH DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND SHOULD REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN 7 AND 10 PM. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. BE READY TO
TAKE COVER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

Instability levels high

2007-06-27T11:30:00.000-04:00

15z (11am EDT) Mesoscale analysis from the SPC showed widespread lifted indices already below -6!

Cap ready to break by noon - 1pm. Stay tuned!

Severe weather becoming more likely

2007-06-27T10:56:00.000-04:00

Here is the latest outlook from the SPC:


...NEW ENGLAND AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ HAS
   SPREAD NEWD INTO NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND ADDITIONAL MOISTENING
   IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND TO THE S OF A STATIONARY
   FRONT ACROSS NRN MAINE.  THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
   SURFACE CYCLONE/COLD FRONT ARE STILL WELL TO THE W IN ONTARIO...AND
   WILL LIKELY REACH MAINE TONIGHT.  THEREFORE...THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE STATIONARY FRONT AND WEAK
   EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA MOVING EWD FROM QUEBEC.
   
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL INVOF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN
   MAINE...WHERE MLCAPE VALUES COULD REACH 1500-2000 J/KG IN
   COMBINATION WITH STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40
   KT.  FARTHER S/SW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER...BUT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A WEAK
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.  HERE...THE WEAKER VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY
   SEVERE THREAT TOWARD ERN NY STATE.

Temperatures and dew points have started to soar (see latest home page post). Convective temperature should be reached by 1pm. High dew points indicate that storms this afternoon will have a lot of moisture to work with. Torrential rainfall is possible, along with damaging winds and frequent lightning.

Stay tuned.

Strong thunderstorms this weekend?

2007-06-26T10:47:00.000-04:00

After the heat, a more stable air mass will move into the region for Friday and the weekend: drier and cooler. However, a cold pool in the upper levels will move over New England, along with a short wave bringing in showers and storms. The cold pool will allow hail to accompany any thunderstorm. This situation will need to be monitored through the week.

---

Details on the potential severe weather event tomorrow will be coming up later this afternoon.

Thunderstorm in central VT

2007-06-25T18:46:00.000-04:00

A thundershower has developed south of Rutland, VT in the past hour, and is moving southeast at about 30mph. This storm is gaining strength and could produce dangerous CTG lightning as well as brief heavy downpours. By its current direction of movement, it will pass 10 miles north of Keene around 8pm.

Short wave about to drop south

2007-06-25T13:57:00.000-04:00

Mostly sunny skies around noon have given way to cumulus clouds with about 50% coverage. Temperatures have reached 84 here in Keene at 1:35pm with a dew point at 61. A pocket of 85+ temperatures has developed in central MA, south-central NH, and northern CT. This area will expand through the afternoon to include all of southern and central NH, central and eastern MA, and CT and RI. Everything is going on track so far. High of 86 expected in Keene around 1500 to 1530.

Across NH, VT, and northern NY lifted indices have dropped to -2 to -4 with 500 to 1000 j/kg of CAPE. A short wave has now dropped south of Quebec and is about to enter northern New York. Scattered showers have begun to enter the northern Adirondacks. As these showers enter more unstable air along with strong 500mb winds, they will intensify. Expect isolated thunderstorms north of the Mass Pike to develop around 1700. The largest threat with the storms will be gusty winds, although small hail is not out of the question.

(1230) The SPC continues a 5% chance of severe winds and/or hail this afternoon.

Otherwise, most cumulus clouds will continue to grow this afternoon with daytime heating. Expect partly cloudy skies through this evening.

Severe weather potentials through Thursday

2007-06-25T09:53:00.000-04:00

Today: Short wave moves southeast along warm front. Isolated showers or thunderstorms ending aournd 9pm. Lifted indices between -2 and -4 with CAPE around 1500 j/kg, will allow for a few thunderstorms to become strong or severe. Not an organized severe weather event, so watch is unlikely.

Tuesday: Backdoor front moving south from Quebec will reach northern Maine by 00z in the evening. Storms along the boundary will likely be strong to severe with lifted indices from -4 to -6 to the north and 500mb winds out of the west / northwest at over 35kts. Slight risk of some rotation in a few storms as well. Watch possible for parts of Maine and northern New Hampshire. Activity will remain north of Keene, with possibly a few isolated air mass thunderstorms affecting the area in the afternoon as lifted indices reach -4 to -8. No organized severe weather for Keene.

Wednesday: Best chance of severe thunderstorms in Keene. Backdoor front continues south. Thunderstorms will move southeast into the area between 3pm and 9pm. Lifted indices between -4 and -6, and PWAT values over 2.0 inches will allow for any thunderstorm to contain very heavy rainfall. Winds will be fairly unidirectional, but over 30kts at 500mb will assist in severe thunderstorm development. Main threats will be damaging winds, although large hail will be possible too. SPC has slight risk for day 3 convective outlook for all of the northeast. This could be an organized severe weather event for central New England with watch potential, and should be monitored closely.

Thursday: Main cold front moves through New England in the afternoon. Arrival in Keene will likely be too early for severe weather development. Thunderstorms will be possible however, with heavy rainfall. May have to monitor flash flood potential if Wednesday storms produce large amounts as well. Main severe weather threat will be to the east with damaging wind and large hail possible. Watch is possible for southern MA, eastern NH, central and eastern MA, CT, and RI.

T'storms tomorrow, larger threat Wed - Thu

2007-06-23T09:05:00.000-04:00

While it may feel more like April than June this morning, heat is on the way. Starting with a warm front that will lift north tomorrow, high temperatures will reach the mid 70s followed by 80 on Monday and into the low 90s on Tuesday.

The warm front tomorrow will introduce instability into the region by the late morning, with isolated convection possible between 15z through 06z early Monday morning. Currently it appears that the low pressure center will move north of NY state Sunday afternoon, limiting the majority of convective activity to the north of the area, and reducing the severe threat. Still, a few storms may produce gusty winds and small hail.

The heat is on for Tuesday with 850mb temperatures approaching 22 to 24C, with sunny skies helping the surface to reach up to 35C (95F). The NAM is forecasting incredible lifted indices for New England Tuesday afternoon between -6 and -10 with CAPE between 2000 and 3000 j/kg. The GFS as usual is not as nearly robust, but still projecting LIs between -2 and -6, which isnt bad coming from the GFS.

Tuesday, however, will not feature any organized thunderstorm activity. A few airmass storms are possible in the afternoon. On Wednesday, a cold front will approach the region from the west. Increasing cloud cover will limit maximum heating, but highs will still manage to reach between 88 and 91. GFS is forecasting lifted indices between 0 and -4, translating to a moderately unstable atmosphere. Right now, it looks like the northeast could see a significant convective complex Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Timing is uncertain with the arrival of the front. The GFS is a full 24 hours faster than the rest of the model guidence, with a late Wednesday morning - afternoon event. At this point, Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon is game for severe weather. The SPC has included the northeast in the extended 4-8 day outlook for severe weather.

TORNADO WATCH!

2007-05-16T15:38:00.000-04:00

And from the research I've done, the first one in history for Cheshire County, NH

STAY TUNED


   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          CONNECTICUT
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS
          FAR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
          FAR SOUTHERN NEW YORK
          NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1230 PM UNTIL
   600 PM EDT.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
   MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF
   POUGHKEEPSIE NEW YORK TO 20 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF WORCESTER
   MASSACHUSETTS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING WITHIN THIS SMALL AREA
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG HEATING AND MODEST INSTABILITY
   IS ALREADY OCCURRING.  IF STORMS CAN REMAIN DISCRETE...SHEAR VALUES
   ARE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY
   TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY INTO MA/NRN CT.  IN ADDITION...DAMAGING WINDS
   AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.

Track the storms

2007-05-16T12:26:00.000-04:00

SPC Hourly mesoscale analysis

Latest MD:


   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1057 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEW ENGLAND...SRN NY...FAR NE PA AND NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 161557Z - 161730Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN NEW
   ENGLAND...SRN NY..FAR NE PA AND NRN NJ OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A
   THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A WW MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS
   THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   15Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW OVER ERN NY WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
   SWWD INTO WRN PA. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EWD FROM THE SFC LOW
   ACROSS NRN AND ERN CT. SOUTH OF THE SFC LOW AND STATIONARY FRONT...A
   THERMAL AXIS EXISTS AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S F.
   AS A RESULT...A SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY EXISTS IN SRN
   NY...CT AND MA WHERE SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1200 TO 1600 J/KG
   ACCORDING TO OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE STEEPER ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND. AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER
   CNTRL NY AND NCNTRL PA MOVES EWD...CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY
   INITIATE IN THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. THE INSTABILITY...LOCALLY
   STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR ON REGIONAL WSR-88D
   VWPS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH LARGE
   HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
   STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD BE
   ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT ORGANIZE WITHIN
   OR AHEAD OF THE LINE.

Special Weather Statement

2007-05-16T12:22:00.000-04:00


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1133 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
CTZ002>004-MAZ002>005-008>013-017-018-026-NHZ011-015-RIZ001>004-
008-162345-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION...
VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...
ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTERFIELD...
BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...MILFORD...
WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...AYER...
JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...
PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BLOCK ISLAND
1133 AM EDT WED MAY 16 2007
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IS WARM AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRST EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...FINALLY PROGRESSING TOWARD BOSTON AND PROVIDENCE BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR MAY ALLOW SOME OF THE
STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. AS ALWAYS...ALL THUNDERSTORMS DO PRODUCE DEADLY
LIGHTNING. ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH
COULD CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/BOSTON FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS. BE READY TO
TAKE COVER IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.
$$

This has the potential to be the most intense outbreak so far this season. Stay tuned to Severe Weather Outlook for the latest on this developing severe weather event.

SPC: Slight risk severe today

2007-05-16T06:28:00.000-04:00

We remain in the warm sector of the storm system, with temperatures currently sitting at 57 with a dew point at 57. The moisture and shower activity will keep clouds in the area today, but highs will still be able to reach the mid 70's, which will keep the air relatively unstable. A cold front will cut through SNE later this evening, bring thunderstorms out ahead of it this afternoon. Some of these storms could contain large hail, damaging winds, frequent lightnight strikes, torrential rain, and a few may even sport a tornado... of which the SPC places us in the 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles- for the first time this season.


   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 AM CDT WED MAY 16 2007
   
   VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO
   N CENTRAL NC...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MAIN UPPER TROUGH -- INITIALLY OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS -- SHOULD
   MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND INTO THE NERN CONUS
   THIS PERIOD...WHILE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS/SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.  WHILE AN UPPER
   RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST...WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE
   FORECAST TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD TO N CENTRAL NC...
   SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST OVER NY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS
   FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO SRN NEW
   ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
   APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
   
   AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE BY
   AFTERNOON /MEAN-LAYER CAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG/...AIDED BY
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR 60.  SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE ONGOING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THIS REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
   INCREASE INVOF SURFACE LOW/FRONTS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  
   
   AS STORMS SPREAD EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...INTENSIFICATION IS
   FORECAST -- AIDED BY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD.  WHILE DEGREE OF
   INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING
   WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH MARGINAL HAIL.  AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR -- PARTICULARLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INVOF
   SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED W-E WARM/STATIONARY FRONT.  SEVERE THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS STORMS MOVE OFFSHORE AND
   INSTABILITY WEAKENS.

Storms developing in New York

2007-05-15T14:34:00.000-04:00

Storms are now forming in western New York. The air is not as unstable as previously thought because of persistent cloud cover this morning. Temperatures will still be able to reach the upper 70's this afternoon as skies clear up somewhat. Dew points will be in the mid 50s to around 60 by this evening. The main time frame to watch will be between 5:30 and 9:00 this evening when the leading edge of the strongest storms will move through the area. Some of these storms will contain gusty winds and small hail in addition to heavy rainfall.

SPC: Slight risk severe today

2007-05-15T06:37:00.000-04:00

And in fact, followed by 5% severe tomorrow. The main concern today will be this evening mainly after 5pm. A front will move south into the area very slowly. Thunderstorms out ahead could produce small hail and high winds. There is potential for damaging winds in some storms. Tornadic development is not a concern at this time. Heavy rain which could produce flooding is possible in some of the storms this evening. Heavy rains will be more of a threat tomorrow as the front slows almost to a stall. A train of slow moving showers and thunderstorms could produce 2 to 3 inches of rain, although, in areas hit hard multiple times, rainfall could locally exceed 5 inches.

SPC PRODUCTS FOR TODAY:


   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
   THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE OZARKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
   SHOULD DIG/STRENGTHEN WITH TIME AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MS
   VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY. 
   ELSEWHERE...A RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHILE A
   WEAKER/FLAT RIDGE MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ERN CONUS INTO THE WRN
   ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE DIGGING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE
   SLOWLY EWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS BOUNDARY
   AND ITS ASSOCIATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM NEW
   ENGLAND/NY WSWWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS.
   
   ...THE OZARKS NEWD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND...
   STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING INVOF FRONT DURING THE START OF THE
   PERIOD...THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
   
   MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AS
   COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE.  
   
   AS STORMS REDEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT...LINEAR STORM MODE SHOULD
   QUICKLY EVOLVE.  MODERATE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- PARTICULARLY FROM
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY ENEWD -- WILL SUPPORT SMALL-SCALE BOWS WITHIN
   THE LINE.  THEREFORE...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
   ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR HAIL.  GREATEST SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
   EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IN/OH...WHERE 40 KT FLOW AT LOW- TO
   MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED.
   
   OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IN A W-E ZONE FROM NEW
   YORK EWD ACROSS PARTS OF VT/NH/MA...AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE LOW. 
   COMBINATION OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE NEAR 500 J/KG AND 50 TO 60 KT
   DEEP-LAYER FLOW SUGGESTS DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS
   CORRIDOR.
   
   THOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FROM PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND/NY SWWD
   ACROSS THE OH/MID MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SEVERE
   THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY WANE AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH TIME.

SPC: 5% severe tomorrow

2007-05-14T14:57:00.000-04:00

   ...ERN NY/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   MODELS INDICATE AS SURFACE LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT... MOVES
   EWD THROUGH SRN ONTARIO...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD INTO THE AREA
   BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODELS VARY ON DEGREE ON INSTABILITY ...THOUGH
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
   ALTHOUGH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000
   J/KG...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVE WARM LAYER BETWEEN 800 AND
   700 MB. THIS WARMING AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS UNTIL LATE
   IN THE PERIOD PRECLUDE MORE THAN A LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY ATTM.

Intense showers and storms right now

2007-05-11T06:33:00.000-04:00

A line is moving through the area right now. There are three separate intense storm cells that I am following. Rain is falling heavily, and our first lightning of the year has lit up the sky.

Severe thunderstorms heading our way

2007-05-10T14:40:00.000-04:00

Our first signifcant convective outbreak is underway in the northeast. Already, numerous thunderstorm cells have strengthened to severe levels across NY, VT, and MA. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued to the west of New England.

Latest SPC Discussion:


  ...NERN U.S...
   UPR LOW WRN NY WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO A TROUGH
   REACHING NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z FRI.  AIR MASS IN ADVANCE OF FRONTAL
   ZONE STRETCHING FROM ERN LAKE ONTARIO SWWD INTO ERN OH CHARACTERIZED
   BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SBCAPES UPWARDS TO 1500 J/KG
   ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES OF LOW 80S ARE REACHED.  INITIALLY
   SHEAR IN THIS WARM SECTOR IS WEAK AS REFLECTED BY 12Z ALB SOUNDING. 
   HOWEVER AS UPR LOW MOVES EWD MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP
   LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 30KT BY AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SURFACE
   BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
   ZONE WITH PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLY LOW
   WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FROM 8-9K FEET.  LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS ALSO
   LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS...HOWEVER OVERALL WEAK
   SHEAR PRECLUDES AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT.  SEVERE THREAT WILL
   DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

Keene currently has a strong thunderstorm cell with hail estimates of 1.0" bearing down on Cheshire County.

Latest regional radar:

Stay tuned

Slight risk severe to our west

2007-05-10T06:21:00.000-04:00


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 AM CDT THU MAY 10 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
   NORTHEAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE PAC NW ALONG
   THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER THIS PERIOD...WITH WEAK/EMBEDDED FEATURES
   FORECAST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD.
   
   ...PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...
   WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NY/PA DURING THE
   DAY...AS COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. 
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING ON SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE COMBINED
   WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD YIELD 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER
   CAPE...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORMS.  
   
   THOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK WITH
   MID-LEVEL FLOW AOB 30 KT...EXPECT PRIMARY STORM MODE TO BE
   MULTICELLULAR AND/OR SMALL-SCALE LINES.  STRONGER STORM CLUSTERS
   WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG/GUSTY
   WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
   HEATING...AS STORMS SPREAD INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

SPC: 5% severe tomorrow

2007-05-09T06:51:00.000-04:00


   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT WED MAY 09 2007
   
   VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
   
   ...NERN STATES...
   A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY. A
   WELL-FOCUSED VORTICITY MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW
   WILL INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION. IN RESPONSE TO
   THE LIFT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WRN PA AND WRN NY WITH THE CONVECTION
   SPREADING EWD INTO THE NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THE
   REGION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND STRENGTHENING
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH AN ISOLATED
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

Thunderstorm potential on Friday

2007-05-08T06:44:00.000-04:00

Temperatures will climb into the low 80's for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Dewpoints could reach the 60's for the first time this year. And a strong cold front will cut through the region Friday evening. Out ahead of it, instability will be sufficient for thunderstorm development. At this time, I am unsure of severe weather potential. While not a significant threat right now, the possibility does exist.

More details later.

FLOOD WATCH

2007-04-14T12:35:00.000-04:00

Flood Watch


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1218 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

MAZ002-003-008-NHZ011-015-150030-
/O.EXA.KBOX.FA.A.0003.070415T1600Z-070416T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
CHESHIRE NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...
CHESTERFIELD...JAFFREY...KEENE...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE
1218 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS EXPANDED THE

* FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
  SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN
  WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN FRANKLIN MA...WESTERN FRANKLIN
  MA AND WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA. IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...
  CHESHIRE NH AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH.

* FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* A PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IS
  EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO HEAVY RAIN EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN
  NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS. 1.50 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
  IS EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY NIGHT...MOST OF IT IN LESS THAN A 12
  HOUR PERIOD. ANY SNOW THAT REMAINS ON THE GROUND MAY ADD TO THE
  FLOODING CONCERNS BY CLOGGING STORM DRAINS.

* THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN MAY CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING OF RIVERS AND
  STREAMS...IN ADDITION TO SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
  FLOODING FROM MELTING SNOW. DRIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR STREET
  FLOODING. AVOID FLOODED ROADWAYS AND PLAN ON USING ALTERNATE ROUTES
  IF NECESSARY. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE TO COME TO AN END BY EARLY
  MONDAY MORNING.

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
FOR UPDATES.


$$

Flood potential Monday

2007-04-13T17:35:00.000-04:00

A major nor'easter will bring a variety of hazardous weather the eastern third of the nation through the middle of next week.

Water amounts of 2 to 4 inches are likely across SNE. Flood watches have been issued for portions of CT and MA, and I expect expansion of these watches tomorrow.

A further south track would still yield the same water amounts, but in the form of snow and would therefore reduce flood issues.

Details on potential coming up tomorrow morning

Thunderstorm threat tonight

2007-03-26T06:41:00.000-04:00

The NWS has added wording to tonight's forecast:

Tonight...Rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight. Not as cool with lows in the upper 30s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 90 percent.

The SPC continues to have us in the "general thunderstorm" area with 5% in western PA

Thunderstorm and heavy rain potential tomorrow

2007-03-25T18:50:00.000-04:00

A storm system will bring convective potential to the region tomorrow afternoon. The SPC has included much of New England in the "general thunderstorm" area with 5% severe in western and central PA.

I'll post more information on this possibility later tonight and hopefully with an update tomorrow morning

Showers / Thunderstorms this afternoon

2007-03-22T16:14:00.000-04:00

It is a very nice day outside. After a two hour delay for drizzle with temperatures around freezing, skies cleared up and highs reached the upper 50's. Two bands of showers and thunderstorms are heading our way right now. The first is entering VT right now, and the second is in western NY. The SPC has the thunderstorm area just west of us, and the NWS gives no mention of thunder potential, but it this current line holds, we may have our first.

Showers will continue through tonight, winding up around midnight. Total rainfall will be light: only around .1" to .2"

Showers and storms headed our way

2007-03-14T16:43:00.000-04:00

The intensity of this area of rain has diminished somewhat in the past hour as it enters a more stable environment, but embedded thunderstorms still are present. The leading edge of the rain will reach the area between 5pm and 530pm.

SPC Day 2 Outlook

2007-03-13T07:03:00.000-04:00

For the first time this year, Keene, NH is included in the outlook for thunderstorms. We need to watch for the possibility of the eastward expansion of the slight risk area, even though it is only a slight possibility.

Forecast Discussion


   SPC AC 130536
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1236 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007
   
   VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED/WED NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SRN GREAT LAKES/LWR OHIO VALLEY....
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WED ACROSS THE LWR MS VLY/CNTRL
   GULF COAST....
   
   THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER FLOW EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
   REMAIN A POINT OF CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE. 
   BUT...IT STILL APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
   BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER
   TROUGH WITHIN THE STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES NOW ALONG THE
   CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER.  THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE A BIT SLOWER THAN
   PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND IT NOW SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ASSOCIATED WAVE
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE POLAR FRONT MAY BE GRADUAL.  HOWEVER...IT
   APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THE PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT SOUTH OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   DURING THE DAY 2 FORECAST PERIOD.
   
   A RETURN FLOW OF 55-60F SURFACE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED AROUND THE
   WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RETREATING WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE
   RIDGE...THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
   OHIO VALLEY...BEFORE THE REMNANTS OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED LOW
   PROGRESSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION.  MID 60S DEW
   POINTS APPEAR PROBABLE NEAR CENTRAL GULF COASTAL AREAS.  AND...
   MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS /PARTICULARLY THE NAM AND NAMKF/ ARE NOW
   INDICATING A BIT MORE SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH THIS PRE-FRONTAL MOISTENING.  
   
   FARTHER WEST...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARMING WEST/NORTH OF THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   IS EXPECTED CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIAL INHIBITION.  THIS IS EXPECTED
   TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/ SOUTHERN
   PLAINS.
   
   ...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
   SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.  AND...THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY WILL PROBABLY PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AS IT ADVANCES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
   LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
   
   HOWEVER...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY BE
   WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AS FAR SOUTH AS THE OHIO RIVER.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO THE
   SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE IS GENERALLY PROGGED TO BE MODERATE AT
   BEST...BUT 30-40 KT WESTERLY MEAN ENVIRONMENT FLOW WILL ENHANCE
   STORM MOTION AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL...IN ADDITION TO SOME
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.  
   
   IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT...FORCING MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZING
   LINE OF STORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON...IN MORE FAVORABLY SHEARED REGIME
   ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF WESTERLIES.  ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR TORNADOES...BUT IT APPEARS A
   TENDENCY TOWARD UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY FAVOR DAMAGING WIND/HAIL AS
   PRIMARY THREATS.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTHWARD TOWARD
   THE OHIO RIVER WITH CONTINUING SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST
   LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
   
   ...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS REGION APPEAR LIKELY TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY
   WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SOMEWHAT SATURATED...WHICH WILL TEND LIMIT
   INSTABILITY AHEAD OF CLOSED LOW AS IT FINALLY PROGRESSES EAST OF
   TEXAS.  HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH WILL
   PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WITH CONVECTION
   LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WEDNESDAY. 
   MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT UPPER FORCING MAY SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER TEXAS COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
   SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...BEFORE STRONGEST CONVECTION DEVELOPS OFFSHORE
   SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
   
   ..KERR.. 03/13/2007

Thunderstorm potential Wednesday

2007-03-12T14:14:00.000-04:00

The 12z NAM is forecasting lifted indices of +2 to -4 across SNE and into New York along with CAPE values of 250 to 750. This is obviously not the makings for widespread severe weather let alone thunderstorms, however the point is the dynamics are there for rapid cloud growth and at least isolated heavy downpours to affect the region. Right now, the best chance for thunderstorms and severe weather is in the Mid Atlantic region up to Northern New Jersey.

Flooding concerns

2007-02-28T16:40:00.000-05:00

This latest storm will be the first of 2007 to present flooding issues to the northeast. Temperatures will likely be cold enough north of the Mass Pike so that we won't have to deal with any flooding, let alone rain. However, south of the Mass Pike, QPF's with this storm are going to range between 1.5 inches and 3.0 inches. Plus there is a snowpack of 2 to 8 inches. Flood watches have been issued for portions of southern NY state and western CT.

Heavy rain a possibility on Saturday

2006-12-21T20:25:00.000-05:00

A significant storm system currently knocking on Midwesterner's doors with snow and wind, will move into our region from the west. Of course since it is tapping heat from the south, we'll be talking about rain on Saturday during the brunt of the storm. While flooding is not a concern at this time, poor-drainage street flooding is a possibility during any periods of heavier rain.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
250 PM EST WED DEC 20 2006

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED WILL BE TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.  IT SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 
FRIDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL INDUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND IN TURN 
PRODUCE MID LEVEL LIFT.  RAIN SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM WEST 
TO EAST NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY.  ENOUGH COLD AIR MAY BE TRAPPED IN 
THE VALLEYS OF NORTHWEST MA AND SOUTHWEST NH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF 
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.  HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO MAKE THIS BRIEF IF IT 
HAPPENS AT ALL.

OTHERWISE...STRONG MID LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO 
THE REGION SATURDAY.  WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS AS THE 
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET AND GFS ENSEMBLES PRETTY MUCH AGREE ON 0.75 TO 
1.50 INCHES OF RAIN.  NAM MODEL APPEARS TO SLOW WHEN COMPARED TO THE 
REST OF THE DATA.  WHILE NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED...TYPICAL POOR 
DRAINAGE NUISANCE STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.  WILL GO A FEW 
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...PARTICULARLY ON THE COAST AS 
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD DEVELOP AND TRY TO MIX OUT INVERSION A 
BIT.  WILL GO FOR HIGHS IN THE 50 TO 55 DEGREE ALONG THE COASTAL 
PLAIN WITH READINGS BETWEEN 45 AND 50 ACROSS THE DISTANT INTERIOR.

RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT.  
LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE OUTLINED AREAS...WITH 40 
TO 45 DEGREE READINGS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.

Rain, no storms, for Monday

2006-12-16T13:16:00.000-05:00

The pattern changing storm is coming up on Monday into Tuesday. It appears now that no severe weather will be associated with this system as the amount of instability will be far too low even for any virga. Rain will fall Monday afternoon, and we still should monitor the possibility for some areas of intense rainfall out ahead of the front.
Otherwise, it appears a winter regime will hold strong through the long term leaving us with no severe weather potentials to talk of.