I have limited time at the moment, but should have more this evening, and for certain tomorrow.
An upper level low will be dropping southeast toward the region tomorrow with its associated cold pool aloft. 500mb temperatures are projected between -15C and -17C. Meanwhile, low level southerly flow will transport moisture into southern New England, raising dew points into the low 60's. Surface temperatures are more uncertain as factoring in cloud cover will greatly limit highs for the day. Any sunshine however, and we could see decent instability develop. The mesoscale ETA has backed off instability, with a narrow CAPE profile for Keene. However, should we get sunshine, CAPE could reach 1000J/kg easily considering cold air aloft. Plus, the moist low levels will contribute to a very low LCL (between 100 and 300m). Again, it's all a matter of getting sunshine.
The wind profile tomorrow continues to look impressive. Starting at the surface, we have a moderate low level jet poking into the region from the south / southeast. The first kilometer is under 15kt southerly flow, turning to the southwest around 20kt between 1 and 2km. Above 2km, the winds become more unidirectional but increase to around 30 to 35kt through the mid levels. This is all under the left front quadrant of a 100kt westsouthwest upper level jet. Indeed, given destabilization tomorrow, it could become very very interesting. This includes the threat for large hail and damaging winds, as well as a few isolated tornadoes.
|posted by Sam Lillo @ 7/06/2009 07:00:00 PM| |
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